The Conservative “Golf” ad may not have won votes, but it likely prevented defections
Ad testing by Research Co. reveals a nuanced story behind the Conservative "Golf" ad
In a recent Ad-Lib post, I argued that the Conservatives’ “golf” ad — “We can’t afford four more years” — may have been one of the most strategically sound spots they ran, precisely because it was so widely ridiculed. It wasn’t designed to inspire new voters. It was meant to stop existing ones from leaving.
Now, a new Research Co. exit poll puts that theory to the test.
The ad test: Conservatives vs. Liberals
Research Co. tested two key ads from the final days of the 2025 federal campaign: the Conservative Party’s “golf” ad and the Liberal Party’s “This Election is Different.” Here’s what they found:
56% of voters said the Liberal ad made them more likely to vote Liberal; just 38% said the same about the Conservative ad.
The Liberal ad was viewed as more informative (63%) and less boring (38%) than the Conservative ad (51% informative, 44% boring).
Both ads had similar reach — 39% of voters had seen the Conservative ad, versus 35% for the Liberal one.
Viewers were asked whether the Conservative ad made them feel more negatively about either party. Reactions were nearly symmetrical in one key area:
42% said the Conservative ad made them think less of the Conservatives (a risk with negative advertising).
But 40% said it made them think less of the Liberals
But if you shift the frame from persuasion to prevention, the “golf” ad starts to look far more effective.
Why the “golf” ad may have worked — just differently
It reached and resonated with at-risk Conservative voters
The ad performed best among voters in the highest income bracket — the very group most likely to have considered voting Liberal. 53% of them said the ad made them want to vote Conservative.
Rather than winning new support, it likely helped retain existing voters who were tempted to switch.
Younger voters responded more positively than expected
While it might not have looked like an ad aimed at Gen Z or Millennials, the numbers tell a different story. 55% of Millennials and 50% of Gen Z said it made them want to vote Conservative. The anti-elitist message may have landed more cleanly with economically frustrated younger voters than anticipated.
It had higher visibility among key demographics
Exposure was highest among Boomers and the Silent Generation — 55% had seen the ad. These voters consistently turn out in large numbers. Getting a message in front of them matters more than making it universally liked.
It created hesitation
The nearly even split in negative sentiment — 42% toward the Conservatives, 40% toward the Liberals — could be seen as muddled messaging. But it may have been intentional. If the objective was to make potential Liberal switchers hesitate — or stay home — the ad likely served its purpose.
It was a tactical play, not a crowd-pleaser
The “golf” ad wasn’t trying to win new ground. It was holding the line. And in the final days of a campaign where defections were a real threat, that may have made it one of the most effective Conservative ads of the entire race.
Sometimes, the most important job for an ad isn’t to persuade. It’s to stop someone from walking away.
*Research Co. Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 27 to April 29, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,034 English-speaking Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.