Justin Trudeau: Could he have escaped the generational truism of Mike + the Mechanics?

"Every generation blames the one before, and all of their frustrations come beating on your door."

In the words of Mike + the Mechanics from The Living Years, "Every generation blames the one before and all of their frustrations come beating on your door." This line perfectly captures how Canadian youth have inherited the unmet promises of the past, and, like many before him, Justin Trudeau paid the price of that truism—bearing the weight of collective expectations as he struggled to turn youthful optimism into lasting change.

Justin Trudeau cancelled his year-end media interviews just weeks before announcing his resignation as PM. However, in a defiant conversation with Radio-Canada’s Patrice Roy a year earlier, Trudeau declared, “I haven’t finished my work,” a promise driven by the fiery energy of the young Canadians who had helped usher him into power in 2015. In that moment, his words expressed his commitment to a generation whose optimism had been the very engine of his ascent.

"The job is not finished. But even more than that. I made a promise to young people who voted for the first time in 2015. Young people in their early twenties who had never voted, who are now almost 30 years old, 30-year-olds who find themselves in a very difficult situation. And I'm not going to give up, I will continue to fight for them."

This also served as a reminder of a political journey that has seen Canadian youth transition from an idealistic fervour to a more complex, sometimes disillusioned, landscape of political engagement.

Over the past decade, the evolving attitudes of young Canadians have been as transformative as they are unpredictable, challenging political leaders to not only keep their promises but to redefine what progress means in an era of rapid economic and social change.

Since Trudeau came to power, the political landscape among Canadian youth has undergone a profound evolution—from the heady days of "sunny ways" and idealistic progressivism in 2015 to an era marked by economic anxiety, political realignment, and a restless appetite for authenticity. This journey mirrors a broader narrative about unmet promises, shifting values, and the relentless impact of economic and technological change on political engagement.

From “Sunny Ways” to disillusionment

In 2015, an energized youth electorate helped propel Justin Trudeau to power on the back of a message of renewal and progressive change. Young Canadians, energized after nearly a decade of Conservative rule under Stephen Harper, flocked to Trudeau’s Liberal Party. Voter participation among 18–24-year-olds surged to 57.1%—an 18-point jump from the previous election—as the campaign’s promises to tackle climate change, legalize cannabis, and reform Canada’s electoral system resonated deeply with a generation hungry for change.

Fast forward a few years, however, and the initial optimism began to erode. By 2019, as scandal after scandal—from the SNC-Lavalin affair to Trudeau’s widely publicized blackface incident—and critical policy reversals like the abandonment of electoral reform took center stage, many young supporters felt betrayed. Notably, the Trudeau government’s decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline to bolster the fossil fuel industry struck a bitter note with climate-conscious voters. The once-sunny outlook had given way to a palpable disenchantment that would eventually manifest in declining voter turnout: youth participation slipped from 57.1% in 2015 to 53.9% in 2019, and then to a mere 46.7% in 2021.

Shifting party preferences among young voters

The political allegiances of Canadian youth, once a near-uniform endorsement of the Liberals, have become increasingly fragmented over the past decade. In 2015, surveys consistently showed that roughly 45% of voters under 30 identified with the Liberals—a comfortable margin that buoyed Trudeau’s majority government. The New Democratic Party maintained a strong appeal among left-leaning youth, while the Conservatives languished as the distant third option.

As the years passed and the Liberal sheen wore off, a notable realignment began to emerge. By 2019, many progressive young voters were shifting their support toward the NDP or the Green Party, driven by issues like climate action and a desire for genuine democratic reform. Polling data from a Léger survey painted a stark picture: among Canadians aged 18–34, 36% supported the NDP while Liberal backing had nearly halved to 25%, and Conservatives trailed at 22%. The 2021 election further underscored this rebalancing, with Abacus Data finding that voters under 30 were almost evenly split among the major parties—an unexpected outcome compared to 2015’s sharp age-based partisan divide.

The post-2021 period brought an even more striking twist. As frustration with the status quo grew, a segment of young Canadians began gravitating toward the Conservative Party. Under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre—with his populist, anti-establishment rhetoric—the Conservatives have tapped into economic anxieties, particularly around housing affordability and job precarity. A March 2023 Abacus poll revealed that among voters aged 18–29, Conservative support had surged to 36%, outpacing the Liberals’ 19% and trailing the NDP’s 27%. Even among slightly older youth (ages 30–44), Conservatives carved out a substantial lead. Such shifts indicate that economic grievances are propelling many young voters to explore alternatives outside the traditional Liberal haven they once knew.

Shifting values and issues

What exactly has driven these dramatic shifts in political alignment? At the heart of the matter is an evolution in issue priorities among young Canadians. In 2015, youth were animated by ambitious ideals—tackling climate change, championing social liberalism, and overhauling democratic processes. Legal cannabis and progressive social policies weren’t just campaign promises; they symbolized a break from the old guard, an embrace of change that resonated with a diverse and hopeful generation.

By the 2020s, however, the focus began to shift from high-minded ideals to immediate economic realities. Housing affordability emerged as a flashpoint, with many young Canadians facing the grim prospect of spending decades saving for a home in an increasingly prohibitive market. Stagnant wages, high inflation, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have transformed the political conversation: while climate change and social justice remain important, the pressing concerns of daily life—rent, student debt, and job security—have taken center stage.

Polls have consistently shown that affordability is the number one issue for voters under 35, with one in three citing cost-of-living pressures as their primary worry. Politicians, in turn, have recalibrated their messaging. Whether it’s Trudeau’s cabinet retreats highlighting “housing affordability and the welfare of young Canadians” or Poilievre’s populist claims of slashing taxes and deflating housing costs, the economic narrative now dominates youth political discourse.

Youth activism and engagement trends

Despite fluctuating voter turnout, youth political engagement has not waned—in fact, it has diversified. Canadian youth remain some of the most politically active citizens, not just through the ballot box but via direct activism, online advocacy, and grassroots initiatives. Research from the Samara Centre shows that 18–29-year-olds are frequently discussing political issues, mobilizing around causes, and spearheading community projects.

This dynamic activism was on full display during the 2019 climate strikes, the protests for Indigenous rights in 2021 following the discovery of unmarked graves at residential schools, and widespread demonstrations supporting racial justice. While many young Canadians have grown skeptical about the impact of voting, alternative forms of participation—social media campaigns, petitions, and on-the-ground protests—continue to drive the political conversation.

Yet, this fervour for issue-based engagement has also contributed to a more volatile and polarized political environment. The instantaneous nature of social media, with its viral memes and rapid-fire political commentary, has both amplified youth voices and, at times, deepened divisions. This dual-edged influence of technology suggests that while young Canadians are more informed than ever, they are also more susceptible to swings in public sentiment driven by online narratives.

Shifting ideologies: Are youth turning conservative or populist?

One of the most striking developments of the past decade is the rise of populist sentiments among young voters—a trend that would have seemed outlandish in 2015. Although many young Canadians continue to hold progressive social values, economic frustrations and a pervasive sense of disillusionment with the political establishment have opened the door for conservative and anti-establishment voices.

Polling data from recent years underscores this trend. A growing number of young voters are not abandoning progressive ideals per se but are expressing their discontent with the status quo by rallying behind leaders who promise radical change.

Interviews with young supporters of Poilievre reveal that their loyalty is less about detailed policy proposals and more about a visceral rejection of what they see as a disconnected establishment. Their anger—rooted in concerns over housing costs, inflation, and the fear that their quality of life will deteriorate compared to previous generations—has, in some cases, driven them toward a populist conservative alternative.

Importantly, this shift is not uniform. Many young Canadians remain undecided, or continue to explore both left-populist and right-populist impulses. Recent surveys indicate that while only 10% of Gen Z identified Trudeau as the best PM in 2024, 25% leaned toward Poilievre and 23% picked Jagmeet Singh of the NDP. This fragmentation suggests that youth are less loyal to any single party and more motivated by the desire for genuine, transformative change.

Impact of economic conditions, education, and social media

The evolving political attitudes of Canadian youth cannot be understood without considering the broader structural factors at play.

The 2015–2025 decade has been a roller coaster economically. From the relative stability of the mid-2010s to the economic shockwaves of the pandemic and subsequent inflation, young Canadians have felt the sting of rising housing costs, precarious job markets, and mounting student debt. When everyday survival becomes a struggle, lofty political promises—no matter how inspirational—can quickly fall by the wayside.

Today’s youth are the most educated generation in Canadian history, which typically correlates with progressive social values and an increased awareness of global issues. However, the promise of education translating into economic security has not held true for many, leading to a sense of disillusionment that fuels political cynicism.

The digital revolution has transformed political engagement. Social media platforms like X, TikTok, and Instagram have empowered youth to organize, debate, and mobilize in ways previously unimaginable. Yet, these same platforms can also act as echo chambers where misinformation and polarization thrive. The immediacy and virality of online content have made political sentiment among youth both powerful and unpredictable.

What now?

No party can afford to take the youth vote for granted. Whether it’s the Liberals’ struggle to recapture lost trust, the NDP’s appeal to a socially and environmentally conscious base, or the Conservatives’ unexpected rise through populist rhetoric, political leaders must address the twin imperatives of affordability and meaningful reform if they wish to re-engage a generation that has proven both passionate and pragmatic.

As Canada gears up for an election, the evolving political views of its young citizens serve as a powerful reminder: promises must be delivered, and policies must speak directly to the everyday realities of those tasked with carrying the nation forward. In an era defined by rapid change and unyielding economic pressures, the political fate of Canada may very well hinge on whether its leaders can finally bridge the gap between aspiration and action for its youth.

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Sources include data from Elections Canada, Reuters, Angus Reid Institute, Abacus Data, Global News/Léger, the Samara Centre, Politico

Photo credit: Frank Schwichtenberg - GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) and/or CreativeCommons (CC)